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Letter: Cost of oil will rise over time

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A decade ago, there was a lot of talk that the world oil production would begin a slow steady decline, while demand would continue to grow, and prices would soar. That event is called Peak Oil. It did not happen that way.

About 2005, it was predicted the event would occur about 2008. Back then, there was only conventional oil -- you drilled down and pumped up. What saved us was the Canadian oilsands coming on stream, and tight oil in the U.S. freed from rock by fracking it. Both these systems are highly controversial. The rest of the world actually did experience peak oil production, then the decline as predicted. The world's population grew by one billion new consumers since then.

The International Energy Agency, which is a worldwide organization of 29 nations, studies the rate of discovery, production and consumption of oil. It just reported that last year, the world discovered only four billion barrels of new oil, less than half of the 15-year average, but we used 36 billion barrels (five barrels per person). Our oil reserves were drawn down by 32 billion barrels from the discoveries made decades ago. It was the lowest rate of discovery in 70 years, when oil exploration was a primitive science. Most of the world has been explored for oil, and money for exploration is actually being cut for a lack of new prospects.

Shell Oil walked away from a $7-billion project off Alaska -- it just got dry holes. Conoco Phillips had similar bad luck in the Atlantic. Most people have great faith in new and better technologies, but it does not make any oil, it only allows us to accelerate the rate of depletion. That makes oil appear abundant while we use the last of it up. That is exactly where we are now. The hard data proves it; it is not a prediction.

It won't take many more years until the price of oil will force you to cut your consumption by half, then three-quarters. In the meantime, we are trying to get off oil to save the environment. That is a blessing in disguise because we are running out of oil to pollute with.

How will green energy charge the batteries in your car at night when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing, and at a price you can afford? If the government is going broke in the good times, it can't subsidize everyone in the bad times. Some politicians even hope to be elected by accelerating the rate at which we go broke, just the way we treat oil. Listen carefully.

Steven Manders

Kingston

The Kingston Whig-Standard 2018 © 

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