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Under current policies and market conditions, the global renewable capacity is projected to hit 7,300 GW by 2028. However, this trajectory falls short of the goal to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, as advocated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in alignment with its Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario.
Governments must address existing challenges and expedite policy implementation to bridge this gap and surpass 11,000 GW by 2030. These challenges encompass policy uncertainties, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure, administrative hurdles, and financing constraints, with solutions tailored to each country’s context.
The report’s accelerated scenario demonstrates that overcoming these challenges could boost renewable growth by nearly 21%, putting the world on track to meet the tripling target. The approach to achieving this collective goal varies widely by country and region, with the G20 nations currently accounting for nearly 90% of global renewable capacity, playing a pivotal role. Enhanced policy implementation and target achievement could see the G20 countries tripling their installed capacity by 2030, significantly contributing to the global initiative.
While renewables are currently the largest energy source for electricity generation in 57 countries, mostly thanks to hydropower, these countries represent just 14% of global power demand. By 2028, 68 countries will have renewables as their main power generation source, but they still account for only 17% of global demand.
Power mix
The global power mix is poised for a significant transformation, with renewable capacity additions over the next five years surpassing the cumulative installations of the past century. Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy are expected to dominate this expansion, comprising 95% of new renewable capacity, driven by supportive policies in over 130 countries.
Solar PV and wind additions are forecast to more than double by 2028 compared with 2022, continuously breaking records over the forecast period to reach almost 710 GW. At the same time, hydropower and bioenergy capacity additions will be lower than during the last five years as development in emerging economies decelerates, especially in China.
Notable milestones include solar PV and wind surpassing hydropower in electricity generation by 2024, overtaking coal as the largest source by 2025, and outpacing nuclear generation by 2025 and 2026, respectively. By 2028, renewables are projected to contribute over 42% of global electricity generation, with wind and solar PV doubling their share to 25%.
China
China is a significant player in the renewable energy sector, accounting for almost 60% of global renewable capacity additions projected by 2028. Between 2023 and 2028, China is poised to introduce renewable capacity nearly four times greater than that of the European Union and five times more than the U.S., which remain key growth markets.
During 2023-2028, China’s renewable energy capacity is anticipated to surge by over 2 TW, tripling the growth seen in the previous five years. Solar installations are expected to contribute three-quarters of this increase.
Despite the phase-out of subsidies, China’s swift adoption of onshore wind and solar PV is credited to their economic viability and supportive policy frameworks. Surpassing its 2030 targets ahead of schedule, China is projected to install over half of the new global capacity required by 2030, with renewables accounting for nearly half of its electricity generation by the end of the forecast period.
United States
The United States is expected to increase its renewable energy capacity by nearly 340 GW between 2023 and 2028, with solar and wind installations dominating the landscape. Despite lingering supply chain issues and trade uncertainties in the short term, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has hastened the pace of additions compared to last year’s projections.
However, the forecast for offshore wind has been significantly reduced by more than 60% due to project developers canceling or postponing planned or contracted capacity owing to prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Nonetheless, utility-scale solar and onshore wind growth is propelled by the clean energy tax credits provided by the IRA, which are set to commence in 2024.
India
Between 2023 and 2028, India is projected to increase its renewable energy capacity by 205 GW, effectively doubling the cumulative installed capacity from 2022. This growth solidifies India’s position as the world’s third-largest market for renewables. Initiatives such as raising auction volumes, introducing a closed-envelope bidding process for wind projects, enhancing grid-access regulations for commercially distributed solar, and resolving most overdue payments to generators have contributed to a 3% upward revision in the forecast. These measures will propel India closer to achieving its target of installing 500 GW of non-fossil-based capacity by 2030.
Europe
From 2023 to 2028, the growth rate in renewable capacity across Europe is set to more than double compared to the previous six years, reaching a total of 532 GW in new additions. Solar will spearhead this expansion, constituting over 70% of the increase, primarily driven by distributed systems, which surpass utility-scale installations by one-third. Wind energy will contribute another 26%, with onshore projects leading.
Distributed solar remains the primary driver of expansion, contributing to the upward revision, as heightened electricity prices and improved policy support make self-consumption increasingly economically viable. Notably, 60% of the additional distributed solar capacity revision is attributed to countries like Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium, where governments have implemented new feed-in tariffs and tax exemptions.
Latin America
Between 2023 and 2028, Latin America is poised to witness the addition of more than 165 GW of renewable energy capacity. The bulk of these additions, totaling 90% of the region’s total, will occur in four key markets: Brazil (108 GW), Chile (25 GW), Mexico (10 GW), and Argentina (4 GW). Solar PV leads the way in capacity expansions, followed closely by wind power.
However, the pace of large-scale hydropower development in the region has slowed, with most economically viable sites already utilized and some major projects encountering delays due to permitting or financing issues. As a result, the rate of capacity additions is expected to decrease over the forecast period, mainly due to slower growth in Brazil, the region’s largest market. While hydropower accounted for over half of the additions between 2011 and 2016, its contribution is projected to decline significantly, representing only 5% of all additions during the forecast period.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to witness the addition of almost 64 GW of new renewable capacity from 2023 to 2028, a significant increase that doubles the region’s existing installed capacity. This forecast has been revised upward by nearly 20%, primarily due to robust expansion in South Africa, contributing to almost half of the region’s total additions. Beyond South Africa, Ethiopia sees over 6 GW of additions driven by hydropower, while Nigeria experiences 5 GW of additions through distributed solar PV. Additionally, Angola and Kenya each add over 2 GW of new renewable capacity during this period.
Middle East and North Africa
Renewable capacity expansion across the Middle East and North Africa is projected to rise by 62 GW from 2023 to 2028. Over the subsequent five years, the growth rate is anticipated to accelerate to over three times that of the preceding five-year period, with solar PV accounting for more than 85% of the increase. Additionally, onshore wind and concentrated solar power will contribute to this expansion. Saudi Arabia is expected to lead this growth, with more than one-third of the total increase, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Oman, Egypt, Israel, and Jordan. These seven nations collectively contribute to over 90% of the region’s growth in renewable capacity.
Global solar manufacturing capacity under construction indicates an increase of 330 GW in 2023 to almost 800 GW – triple the 2021 level, according to IEA. This surplus in capacity is projected to more than double the forecast installations for 2023, creating a significant supply surplus.
Arjun Joshi, Staff reporter at Mercom India
