BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

Clean Power Is Growing Fast. Now We Need Clean Heat And Clean Transport

Following
This article is more than 5 years old.

The amount of clean energy in the global energy mix will continue to soar in the next five years, representing 40% of total growth in energy consumption, but renewable energy technologies will still be mostly confined to electricity generation during that time frame, according to the International Energy Agency.

By 2023, renewables will account for almost a third of total world electricity generation, the Agency’s Renewables 2018 market analysis and forecast reports. However, progress will be far slower in renewable transport and heat because of weaker policy support and other barriers to deployment.

Solar and wind will continue to dominate the clean power sector, but the IEA predicts significant growth in modern bioenergy because of its widespread use in heat and transport, as well as power generation.

In 2017, 178GW of renewable energy electricity capacity was added, more than two thirds of global power growth, led by 97GW of solar power, more than half of it in China. Solar’s success offset slower growth in offshore wind and hydropower.

Solar capacity is set to expand in the next half a decade by almost 600 GW – more than all other renewable power technologies combined, or as much as twice Japan’s total capacity, reaching 1 terawatt (TW) by the end of the forecast period. The growth in solar will be led by a massive expansion in distributed generation, which will spur almost half of global PV capacity growth over 2018-23. Homes, businesses and large industrial applications are expected to generate almost 2% of global electricity output by 2023.

Despite recent policy changes, China remains the absolute solar PV leader by far, holding almost 40% of global installed PV capacity in 2023. The US remains the second-largest growth market for solar PV, followed by India, whose capacity increases fourfold.

Wind remains the second-largest contributor to renewable capacity growth, while hydropower remains the largest renewable electricity source by 2023. Similar to last year’s forecast, wind capacity is expected to expand by 60%. Meanwhile, spurred by technological progress and significant cost reductions, offshore wind capacity triples, with growth moving beyond Europe to Asia and North America.

“Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “Its share in the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50% today, in other words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined. We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and it has huge prospects for further growth. But the right policies and rigorous sustainability regulations will be essential to meet its full potential.”

Modern bioenergy will have the biggest growth in renewable resources between 2018 and 2023, Birol says, “underscoring its critical role in building a robust renewable portfolio and ensuring a more secure and sustainable energy system”.

There is untapped potential to make use of bioenergy in the cement, sugar and ethanol industries, where wastes and residues that offer low lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate concerns over land-use change. In addition, using these resources can improve waste management and air quality, the IEA says.

China will continue to dominate the clean energy market as a result of its policy focus on decarbonising all sectors of the economy, as much to tackle local air pollution as to deal with climate change. By 2023, it will be the world’s biggest consumer of renewable energy in absolute terms, overtaking the European Union. However, Brazil, with its abundant hydropower resources and well-developed ethanol sector, will continue to have the highest share of renewables among the world’s largest energy consumers at almost 45%.

Despite the widespread penetration of renewables and the sector’s increasing maturity, an encouraging policy environment and the right market design remain vital. “Under an accelerated case, which assumes greater supportive government measures, the expansion of renewables in electricity and in transport could be 25% higher,” the report says.

By 2023, more than half of clean energy capacity is likely to be commissioned through competitive auctions, “which continue to slash wind and solar PV bid prices to between USD 20 per megawatt hour (MWh) and USD 50/MWh,” the IEA points out.

The potential for renewable heat remains untapped, it adds, with the sector representing only a tenth of total heat demand. However, renewable head demand is set to grow by 20% in the next five years.